Development and validation of a population-based risk stratification model for severe COVID-19 in the general population.

The shortage of recently approved vaccines against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has highlighted the need for evidence-based tools to prioritize healthcare resources for people at higher risk of severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Although age has been identified as the most important risk factor (particularly for mortality), the contribution of underlying comorbidities is often assessed using a pre-defined list of chronic conditions. Furthermore, the count of individual risk factors has limited applicability to population-based "stratify-and-shield" strategies. We aimed to develop and validate a COVID-19 risk stratification system that allows allocating individuals of the general population into four mutually-exclusive risk categories based on multivariate models for severe COVID-19, a composite of hospital admission, transfer to intensive care unit (ICU), and mortality among the general population. The model was developed using clinical, hospital, and epidemiological data from all individuals among the entire population of Catalonia (North-East Spain; 7.5 million people) who experienced a COVID-19 event (i.e., hospitalization, ICU admission, or death due to COVID-19) between March 1 and September 15, 2020, and validated using an independent dataset of 218,329 individuals with COVID-19 confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), who were infected after developing the model. No exclusion criteria were defined. The final model included age, sex, a summary measure of the comorbidity burden, the socioeconomic status, and the presence of specific diagnoses potentially associated with severe COVID-19. The validation showed high discrimination capacity, with an area under the curve of the receiving operating characteristics of 0.85 (95% CI 0.85-0.85) for hospital admissions, 0.86 (0.86-0.97) for ICU transfers, and 0.96 (0.96-0.96) for deaths. Our results provide clinicians and policymakers with an evidence-based tool for prioritizing COVID-19 healthcare resources in other population groups aside from those with higher exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and frontline workers.

Giant cell arteritis presenting as scalp necrosis.

The differential of scalp ulceration in older patients should include several causes, such as herpes zoster, irritant contact dermatitis, ulcerated skin tumors, postirradiation ulcers, microbial infections, pyoderma gangrenosum, and giant cell arteritis. Scalp necrosis associated with giant cell arteritis was first described in the 1940s. The presence of this dermatological sign within giant cell arteritis represents a severity marker of this disease, with a higher mean age at diagnosis, an elevated risk of vision loss and tongue gangrene, as well as overall higher mortality rates, in comparison to patients not presenting this manifestation. Even though scalp necrosis due to giant cell arteritis is exceptional, a high level of suspicion must be held for this clinical finding, in order to initiate prompt and proper treatment and avoid blindness.

Presence of Erdheim-Chester disease and Langerhans cell histiocytosis in the same patient: a report of 2 cases.

The histiocytic disorders Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) and Erdheim-Chester disease (ECD), can both present with multisystem involvement, with the central nervous system and the bone, skin, neuroendocrine, cardiac, respiratory, and gastrointestinal systems potentially affected. The 2 entities occasionally can be difficult to distinguish. Both rarely affect the orbit and the central nervous system, and although there are rare reports of patients with coexistent LCH and ECD, there are no reported cases of the 2 diseases that involve both the orbital and neuroendocrine systems. We report 2 such cases, and review the literature of cases of LCH and ECD occurring in the same patient. The presentation of LCH and ECD in certain patients suggests a possible abnormality in the common CD34 progenitor cell. The coexistence of the 2 disease states should be suspected in patients with atypical presentations of either disorder.